AGP Executive Report

Election Showdown: Serbia votes on Sunday in a snap election that could end 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vučić’s party. A student-led movement, formed after the Novi Sad station collapse killed 16 people, has fielded 250 candidates on an anti-corruption platform. Vučić, who resigned as president, is seeking to become prime minister. Election Watch: A record 16,271 observers are expected, including Hungarian teams ready to move to polling sites if tensions arise. Journalists’ groups warn of threats, attacks and weak protection, while critics say pro-government media have heavily skewed campaign coverage. Foreign Policy: At EU–Western Balkans talks in Tirana, Serbian State Secretary Nevena Jovanović reaffirmed EU membership as a strategic goal and urged concrete progress on accession.**

Election Showdown: Serbia votes Sunday in a tight parliamentary race that could end 14 years of rule by Aleksandar Vučić’s party. The student-led opposition, formed after 16 people died in the Novi Sad station collapse, has drawn huge crowds and is narrowly ahead in one poll. Vučić, who resigned as president, is seeking to return as prime minister. Pressure and Scrutiny: The campaign has been shadowed by reports of beatings, cyberattacks, threats and spyware targeting a university rector and a prosecutor. The EU has refused to replace its election observers after officials questioned their impartiality; prosecutors have urged calm and respect for the law. Regional Stakes: Russia’s Vladimir Putin has publicly backed Vučić, while Serbia’s EU membership bid and its ties with Moscow remain in focus. The vote will also test demands for accountability over the Chinese-backed railway project whose collapse sparked the student movement.

Election Watch: Serbia’s early parliamentary vote is Sunday, after a huge student-led rally in Belgrade capped a campaign that has made the Student List the strongest challenge to Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling party in 14 years. The prosecution urged peaceful conduct and respect for the law, while the EU rejected Serbia’s demand to replace election observers. Campaign Tensions: Reports of beatings, cyberattacks and spyware targeting pro-democracy figures have heightened fears over the vote’s fairness; election silence is now in force. Belgrade Development: Vučić faces fresh scrutiny over allegations he pressured a heritage official to remove protection from the General Staff site for a proposed Trump Tower project linked to Jared Kushner’s firm. Economy: The National Bank says short-term inflation expectations among financial-sector respondents held at 3.5% for a third month; households’ one-year expectations remain much higher, at 10%.

Election Showdown: Around 150,000 people rallied in Belgrade behind the student-backed Student List, the strongest challenge yet to Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling SNS after 14 years in power. The weekend vote follows nearly two years of protests sparked by the Novi Sad station collapse, which killed 16. Pressure on Critics: Ahead of the poll, protesters reported police beatings and threats; researchers say spyware targeted at least 14 government critics, including a university rector and prosecutor. Authorities deny unlawful surveillance and repression. Journalists Vuk Cvijić and Milan Radonjić have also received death threats, prompting NUNS to demand an investigation and protection. Energy Deal: Hungary’s MOL has signed an agreement to buy the majority Russian stake in Serbia’s NIS oil company, pending regulatory approval.

Election Showdown: Hundreds of thousands rallied in Belgrade for the student movement’s final campaign event before Sunday’s snap vote, challenging Aleksandar Vučić’s 14-year rule. Campaigning is now prohibited until polls close; civil society groups warn of intimidation, attacks and unfair election conditions. Security and Pressures: Police arrested six people over an alleged plot to cause unrest on election day, while reports of pressure on independent media and spyware targeting critics deepen concerns about the vote. US Sanctions Request: A Republican congressman has asked Secretary of State Marco Rubio to sanction four businessmen linked to Vučić, accusing them of corruption and election interference. The named companies and businessman reject the claims. Energy Deal: Hungary’s MOL has agreed to buy Russia’s majority stake in Serbia’s NIS oil company, pending regulatory approval, reshaping the country’s energy sector.

Election Tensions: Serbian police arrested six people suspected of plotting attacks on officers and political opponents on election day, October 25. Prosecutors have not proved the allegations or reported a link to the student movement. Student Challenge: Thousands welcomed students marching into Belgrade ahead of their final rally, as the student-backed list contests the ruling SNS after nearly two years of protests. Aleksandar Vučić, who resigned as president, is seeking to return as prime minister. Media Freedom: UN experts warned of pressure on independent newsrooms ahead of the vote, while reports of spyware attacks on Serbian pro-democracy figures have added to concerns over journalists’ and critics’ safety. Energy Deal: Hungary’s MOL has signed an agreement to buy the Russian majority stake in Serbia’s NIS oil company; regulatory approval is still pending. Rule of Law: Serbia ranked lowest in the Western Balkans in the 2026 World Justice Project index, at 95th of 143 countries.

Election Showdown: Thousands welcomed student marchers into Belgrade ahead of Thursday’s closing rallies, as the student-backed list fields 250 candidates against Aleksandar Vučić’s SNS in Sunday’s parliamentary vote. Vučić rallied supporters in Niš and accused rivals of planning to sanction Russia. Election Security: Police arrested six people suspected of planning violence against police and political opponents on election day; the allegations have not been tested in court. Media and Surveillance: UN experts warned of pressure on journalists and threats to editorial independence. Researchers also reported Pegasus spyware had infected University of Belgrade Rector Vladan Đokić’s phone, while a prosecutor received a spyware warning. NIS Deal: Finance Minister Siniša Mali said an agreement had been signed for Hungary’s MOL to buy the Russian majority stake in NIS, but MOL said there were no new developments to report; regulatory approval is still needed. Hospital Safety: Belgrade’s Clinical Center confirmed a ceiling collapsed at the Višegradska maternity clinic, injuring a nurse and prompting the evacuation of newborns.

Election Watch: Serbia votes on October 25 amid a tense campaign. President Aleksandar Vučić says Serbia will resist pressure to sanction Russia and alleges foreign powers are trying to destabilize the country, without presenting evidence. Broadcaster N1 has refused to give him an election slot, citing years of insults against its journalists; Vučić’s allies have also accused European election observers of bias. Media and Surveillance: Vremena, Beta and at least six other media and civic accounts were hit by suspected bot-follower attacks. Separately, researchers say spyware infected the phones of university rector Đokić and prosecutor Bajić, who investigated the Belgrade Trump Tower project. Public Spending: Serbia has signed public contracts worth more than €6.5 billion this year, with 57% reportedly exempt from procurement law. Energy and Kosovo: Serbia is fast-tracking a pipeline for American gas, though the EU is reportedly cool on the plan. At the UN, officials warned of rising tensions in Kosovo and urged Belgrade and Pristina to pursue dialogue.

Election Watch: Serbia’s Oct. 25 parliamentary vote is drawing international scrutiny, with PACE, OSCE and European Parliament observers due to monitor the ballot. Distribution of more than 6.4 million ballot papers has begun. Spyware Allegations: Citizen Lab confirmed Pegasus infected University of Belgrade rector Vladan Đokić’s phone; a prosecutor linked to a corruption inquiry was also reportedly targeted. Researchers have not identified who was behind the attacks. Campaign Tensions: Personal details of 3,625 people in Vojvodina appeared online under the label “Student Teams”; the source and origin of the data remain unknown. In Niš, Mediana ordered an SNS rally stage removed, saying organizers lacked a permit. Polls and Promises: An NSPM survey puts the Student List at 44.5% and the ruling United Serbia list at 42.7% among likely voters. President Aleksandar Vučić forecast turnout of 63–66%, while promising free dental care and prenatal screening.

Election Showdown: Serbia’s student-led movement will challenge the ruling Serbian Progressive Party in Sunday’s parliamentary election, after nearly two years of protests sparked by the deadly Novi Sad station collapse. Aleksandar Vučić is seeking a return as prime minister. International observers have raised concerns about voter intimidation, political violence and election fairness; students plan a major Belgrade rally on Thursday. Spyware Concerns: Citizen Lab and Serbia’s SHARE Foundation say University of Belgrade Rector Vladan Đokić’s phone was infected with Pegasus in 2026. The finding adds to reports that at least 16 members of Serbian civil society have been targeted with advanced spyware; a prosecutor’s phone is also under investigation. State Resources: BIRN reports that workers in state institutions said some colleagues were paid public salaries while doing party work, including at an SNS call centre—raising fresh questions about the use of public resources in the campaign. Pharma Trade Gap: Serbia’s pharmaceutical exports rose 39% in 2025 to €925 million, but imports reached €2.6 billion, leaving a deficit of about €1.7 billion.

Election Challenge: Serbia’s student-led movement is taking its anti-corruption campaign to the ballot box, challenging Aleksandar Vučić’s 14-year rule in the October 25 election. The race appears tight, and students expect tens of thousands at their final Belgrade rally on Thursday. Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico backed Vučić at a Novi Sad rally and rejected claims of foreign interference. Surveillance Concerns: Digital rights researchers say University of Belgrade rector Vladan Đokić was infected with Pegasus spyware, while senior prosecutor Rade Bajić was also targeted. Both have supported the student movement; authorities have not commented on the latest findings. Campaign Promises: Vučić pledged free prenatal tests, but the prime minister cannot introduce the benefit directly: Serbia’s health insurance fund would first need to add it to publicly covered services. Some tests currently cost hundreds of euros.

Election Campaign: With Serbia’s parliamentary vote set for Oct. 25, students say claims they plan to kidnap a colleague amount to a threat; they also allege arrests are being prepared. Judge Miodrag Majić says Belgrade prosecutors have scheduled special duty around election day, which he interprets as preparation for possible incidents or arrests. Campaign Scrutiny: ULUS says it had no role in an SNS rally video featuring a representative of a similarly named artists’ association. European Parliament lawmakers will join the election-monitoring mission from Oct. 22. Voter Turnout: BIRODI estimates 11–16% of voters remain undecided, while its director says the student campaign seeks higher turnout and the ruling party lower turnout. Bot Allegations: A Vreme analysis of leaked SNS data found 1,241 accounts linked to public-institution networks; estimated lost public-sector work time could cost up to €21.5 million in a year. Business: Telekom Srbija says it is stepping up AI investment and plans to launch US mobile services in December.

Election Watch: Seven MEPs will join the OSCE’s international mission in Serbia from Oct. 22 to assess whether the Oct. 25 parliamentary vote meets national and international standards. Campaign Funding: BIRN reports that Serbia’s Foreign Ministry awarded more than €250,000 over three years to diaspora groups that support the ruling SNS or promote right-wing views; the ministry did not respond to its questions. Political Tensions: Student protesters are challenging President Aleksandar Vučić’s rule, while he has urged supporters to treat the vote like a “World Cup final” and warned of efforts to destabilize Serbia. Kosovo: Serbia’s chief of staff told the new KFOR commander that Kosovo Serbs do not feel safe and called for the peacekeeping force to protect their rights and freedom of movement.

Election Campaign: Serbia heads toward the October 25 vote amid an intense contest between the ruling SNS and a student-led opposition movement. Vučić’s Novi Sad rally drew large crowds and a heavy security presence; critics described it as a show of force. Campaign Scrutiny: BIRN reports that the Foreign Ministry gave more than €250,000 to diaspora groups that support the SNS or promote right-wing views. Separately, leaked records described by Vreme indicate a ruling-party-linked online network issued nearly 395,000 social-media tasks between 2023 and 2024. Election Integrity: Serbian monitors have raised concerns about election fairness and the arrival of foreign groups they describe as “fake observers”; seven MEPs are expected to observe the vote. Rights and Economy: Belgrade Pride condemned campaign messaging it says portrays transgender people as a threat. The IMF has raised Serbia’s 2026 growth forecast to 3.3%, while warning inflation could return in 2027.

Election Campaign: Serbia’s October 25 parliamentary vote is drawing scrutiny. International monitors have raised concerns about fairness and safety, while the ruling SNS held a rally in Novi Sad backed by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico. Students and opposition groups are also mobilizing, and reports have questioned the use of online political campaigns and alleged party-linked bot networks. Accountability: The Guardian reported that President Aleksandar Vučić personally intervened to remove protection from Belgrade’s former General Staff complex, clearing a path for a Trump-linked hotel project. Business Climate: Serbian business confidence is slipping, with barely one in four companies expecting turnover to grow. The government has also announced plans for a central register of administrative fees and charges.

Election Campaign: Aleksandar Vučić’s ruling SNS held a major rally in Novi Sad on Friday, with Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico voicing support for Vučić ahead of the October 25 vote. The campaign comes amid continuing demands for accountability over the station collapse that killed 16 people. Election Oversight: At a Stanford panel, CRTA’s Raša Nedeljkov warned that people he called “fake observers,” linked to US MAGA and Russian right-wing groups, may monitor the vote; he did not identify them. International monitors have also raised concerns about election fairness and safety. Economy: The IMF lifted its 2026 growth forecast for Serbia to 3.3%, but warned inflation could return in 2027. Business confidence is weaker: a recent survey found only about one in four Serbian firms expects turnover to grow.